Boost Watch, Week 3: the rehearsal is over
September is complete and the split never moved: twelve Future Stars played all three weeks, two played none. None of it has paid a point yet — October is the first month that scores, and it starts this week with two jobs won and two roles shrinking.
September is done, and it ended the way it started. Twelve of the fourteen cards in the pack have played every week, one has dressed for three games without taking a snap, and one has not come off injured reserve. Three weeks, no change to the split.
What did change is who holds what. Week 3 was the first week of the month where jobs moved rather than form: a guard finished a game at center and snapped the winning kick, a reserve tackle was handed a starting job outright, and a tight end had the best game anyone in this pack has had. Two others went the other way. Those are below, in the order they matter.
The twelve who played
VEGA IOANE — OG, Baltimore Ravens. The story of the week. Baltimore beat Dallas 34–31 in Rio on a walk-off 56-yard field goal, and Ioane finished the game at center after Jovaughn Gwyn went off with an ankle and Ethan Pocic with a knee. He snapped the ball on the go-ahead touchdown and on the kick that won it. The extra reps he had been taking at center turned into two snaps that decided a game.
MAX IHEANACHOR — OT, Pittsburgh Steelers. He got the start. Pittsburgh benched Dylan Cook and Spencer Anderson, moved Iheanachor to right tackle and Brock Hoffman to right guard, and beat Cincinnati 30–27 with Rodgers hitting five completions of 20 yards or more, tied for his most as a Steeler. Iheanachor finished among the five highest-graded Steelers on the day, and the reporting is that the job is his and will not change soon. Two weeks ago he was the card most likely to miss a game. He is now a starter.
KENYON SADIQ — TE, New York Jets. The breakout, and the best afternoon anyone in this pack has had. Seven catches for 105 yards and a diving 24-yard touchdown on a season-high 38 snaps, in a 31–24 loss to Detroit. He is the first Jets tight end over 100 yards since 2019 and the first rookie tight end in the club’s history with a rushing and a receiving touchdown in the same season. One caveat worth keeping: Adonai Mitchell, Omar Cooper Jr. and Mason Taylor were all out, so some of that volume was circumstance rather than promotion.
CALEB DOWNS — S, Dallas Cowboys. On the losing side of the Ioane game and excellent for a third straight week. He stonewalled Derrick Henry on a fourth-and-1 that Dallas turned into a touchdown, and Henry finished 0-for-3 on short-yardage runs, the worst such game of his career, with Downs responsible for the first stop. Three games in he has 17 tackles, a sack, two forced fumbles and a pass breakup. He is the best player in the pack and it is no longer close.
ANTHONY HILL — LB, Tennessee Titans. Sixty-four snaps and eight tackles in a 12–7 loss to the Giants. He is at 34 tackles through three games, the second-largest Titans total through three games since 2000. Nothing about this role is in doubt.
PETER WOODS — DT, Kansas City Chiefs. Quietly climbing. Thirty-five snaps, five more than nominal starter Khyiris Tonga, and a snap count that has risen three weeks running. Kansas City won 24–10 and is 3–0. He has gone from a rotation body to the man taking the most snaps at his position without anybody announcing it.
ARVELL REESE — LB, New York Giants. The Giants won 12–7, and the thing to watch came off the injury report rather than the box score: with Brian Burns down with a knee injury, Reese is among the players listed as able to slide out to edge. A linebacker who can also rush is a linebacker who plays more, not less.
JADARIAN PRICE — RB, Seattle Seahawks. Cleared fully off the injury report after the shoulder scare and was a full go at Washington. The asterisk from last week is gone.
JAKE SLAUGHTER — C, Los Angeles Chargers. Starting center in a 24–16 loss to Buffalo. The Chargers are 0–3, which is a problem for them and not for this card: a center on a bad team takes the same number of snaps as a center on a good one.
MAKAI LEMON — WR, Philadelphia Eagles. Three catches on four targets for 29 yards in a 27–7 Monday night beating by Chicago, including a 19-yard first down on the opening play. The Eagles ran 47 offensive plays all night and Hurts was evaluated for a concussion. A thin stat line on a night with that few snaps says more about the game than the player, but the quarterback’s health is now something to keep an eye on.
AVIEON TERRELL — CB, Atlanta Falcons. Played in a 35–14 win over Green Bay, and his role shrank. C.J. Henderson was, in the reporting, lights out, and has locked down the outside spot while A.J. Terrell is hurt; Sydney Brown and Billy Bowman are taking the nickel snaps. He is the one player here whose usage is going the wrong way for a reason other than rotation.
DERRICK MOORE — DE, Detroit Lions. Nine defensive snaps, down from 17 the week before. Detroit won 31–24. Two weeks of shrinking usage is a trend rather than a game script.
The two who sat out
FERNANDO MENDOZA — QB, Las Vegas Raiders. Confirmed by national reporting: not a single snap all season. The Raiders are 3–0, Kirk Cousins is playing well, and Klint Kubiak is an early Coach of the Year front-runner. Every one of those makes a Mendoza debut less likely rather than more. A backup quarterback on a winning team is the hardest card in this pack to get a boost out of.
JORDYN TYSON — WR, New Orleans Saints. Still on injured reserve, and eligible to return in Week 5. That date matters now: Week 5 is inside October, so unlike September, the month he comes back in is a month that pays.
What it means for your database
September totals: twelve rookies at three-for-three, Mendoza and Tyson at zero-for-three. The month is closed.
None of that has paid a point. The four boost windows are October, November, December and January, so a full month of football has moved no ratings and all fourteen cards are still in the Player Database at 82. September was the rehearsal. October is the one that pays, and it starts this week.
Which makes the three-for-three column worth reading as a forecast rather than a result. Ten of these fourteen now hold a job you would expect to survive a month: Ioane, Slaughter, Downs, Reese, Hill, Terrell, Price and Iheanachor start, and Woods and Sadiq hold roles that fire every week. That is a bigger safe group than at any point in September, and Iheanachor moving into it is the single biggest change of the month.
An 82 still spends like an 82 on a challenge today, and that is still the trap. Ten of these fourteen are more likely than not to be an 85 by December and an 88 by February. Submitting one of them into a challenge an 82 could clear is paying three ratings for nothing.
Risers and fallers
Going into October, five cards are trending up and four down. None of the fallers is at risk of missing a game yet — every one of them is dressing and playing — but usage is the thing that turns into a missed game first.
- Riser — Max Iheanachor. From a backup one quiet Sunday from a missed game to a named starter at right tackle in a week.
- Riser — Vega Ioane. Now the emergency center as well as the starting right guard, with both men ahead of him hurt. Two ways onto the field is safer than one.
- Riser — Kenyon Sadiq. A 105-yard game on 38 snaps, though three receivers were out; the snap count is the number to check next week, not the yards.
- Riser — Peter Woods. Snap count up three weeks running and now ahead of the nominal starter.
- Riser — Arvell Reese. Brian Burns’ knee could add edge snaps to a role that was already every-week.
- Faller — Avieon Terrell. C.J. Henderson has the outside job and the nickel snaps are going elsewhere. The clearest usage drop in the pack.
- Faller — Derrick Moore. Nine snaps, down from 17. If it halves again he is a healthy scratch, and a healthy scratch is a lost month.
- Faller — Fernando Mendoza. At 3–0 with Cousins playing well, this looks less like a delayed debut and more like a full redshirt year.
- Watch — Makai Lemon. Not his doing: 47 team plays and a quarterback evaluated for a concussion is a volume problem that could last into October.