Prospect Watch, Week 8: Starks drops 35 points, Herbig climbs 19
Still fourteen Prospects cards in the field, but Treveyon Henderson is in and Jared Verse is out, after New England won and Cleveland lost 27–6 at Pittsburgh. Malaki Starks fell furthest, 52% to 17%, with Lamar Jackson facing thumb surgery, and Nick Herbig climbed most, 58% to 77%.
Week 8 is in. A Prospects card takes a one-time +5 to every rating if its player’s team makes the Playoffs, and stays as pulled if it does not, so all 32 cards in Prospects #1 and Prospects #2 come down to one question: does the team get in? When a team gets in, raise that card’s rating by five in your own collection. Nothing does it for you.
The odds blend eleven sources this week: Kalshi and Polymarket, bet365 and DraftKings, five published projection models including ESPN’s, and two simulations of the 151 games left, run with the league’s tiebreakers. The sets as a whole have not moved: the odds still expect fourteen of the 32 to take +5. What moved is which fourteen.
Who is in?
Fourteen cards are on teams holding a playoff seed today, the same count as last week. Treveyon Henderson is in, with New England up to seventh in the AFC, and Jared Verse is out, with Cleveland down to eighth.
Eleven of the fourteen are at 75% or better, and DeWayne Carter is now the safest card in either set at 96%, with Buffalo top of the AFC at 6–1. The other three are Abdul Carter at 60%, Matthew Golden at 50% and Ja'Tavion Sanders at 32%.
NICK HERBIG — LB, Pittsburgh Steelers. The biggest riser of the week, 58% to 77%. Pittsburgh beat Cleveland 27–6, went to 6–2 and took the AFC’s third seed. It has its bye in Week 9, then goes to Cincinnati: 87% with a win, 70% with a loss.
TREVEYON HENDERSON — RB, New England Patriots. In the field for the first time. A 24–19 win at Miami took New England to 5–3 and seventh in the AFC, and its odds from 71% to 79%. Green Bay visits on Sunday, and then New England goes to Detroit.
ABDUL CARTER — LB, New York Giants. Up from 51% to 60% on a bye. The Giants still lead the NFC East at 4–2–1, and Dallas and Philadelphia both lost. The trip to Philadelphia on Sunday is a 22-point swing: 70% with a win, 48% with a loss.
MATTHEW GOLDEN — WR, Green Bay Packers. A 27–19 win over Carolina keeps Green Bay seventh at 5–3 and lifts its odds from 46% to 50%. Next come a trip to New England and then Minnesota at home, and that Week 10 game is the biggest swing any card has: 63% with a win, 33% with a loss.
JA'TAVION SANDERS — TE, Carolina Panthers. Still the fourth seed, because Carolina leads the NFC South at 3–4, but the loss at Green Bay took its odds from 38% to 32%. Tampa Bay is half a game back after shutting out Atlanta. Week 10 at New Orleans: 43% with a win, 20% with a loss.
On the bubble
Four cards are outside today with odds of 30% or better.
ZACH CHARBONNET — RB, Seattle Seahawks. The second-biggest fall of the week, 68% to 46%. Chicago won 34–17 in Seattle, and the Seahawks are 4–4 and eighth in the NFC. The sources split: 55% in the markets, 43% in the models. Arizona visits on Sunday: 51% with a win, 32% with a loss.
KAMREN KINCHENS — S, Los Angeles Rams. Up from 39% to 45% after a 24–9 win over the Chargers. The Rams are 4–4 and ninth in the NFC with the hardest schedule left in the league, and they go to Washington on Sunday: 53% with a win, 31% with a loss.
GRAHAM BARTON — C, Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Up 17 points, from 26% to 43%, the second-biggest rise of the week. Tampa Bay shut out Atlanta 16–0, sits half a game behind Carolina for the NFC South, and has outscored its opponents by 27, the fourth-best margin in the NFC. Week 9 at Chicago: 56% with a win, 36% with a loss.
JARED VERSE — DE, Cleveland Browns. Out of the field after a 27–6 loss at Pittsburgh dropped Cleveland from third in the AFC to eighth. The Browns are still 5–3, but they have been outscored by 34, and the odds fell from 43% to 31%. After New Orleans on Sunday, Houston visits: 46% with a win, 23% with a loss.
Long shots
Fourteen cards are on teams below 30%:
- Tyler Booker, Cowboys, 29%
- Kamari Lassiter, Texans, 24%
- Xavier Watts, Falcons, 22%
- Jackson Powers-Johnson, Raiders, 17%
- Malaki Starks, Ravens, 17%
- Jayden Daniels, Commanders, 15%
- Kelvin Banks Jr., Saints, 12%
- Paris Johnson Jr., Cardinals, 4%
- Jihaad Campbell, Eagles, 4%
- Tyler Warren, Colts, 3%
- T'Vondre Sweat, Jets, 2%
- Tarheeb Still, Chargers, 1%
- Brandon Crenshaw-Dickson, Titans, 1%
- De'Von Achane, Dolphins, under 1%
MALAKI STARKS — S, Baltimore Ravens. The biggest fall in either set, 52% to 17%. Baltimore lost 36–10 at Buffalo, its third loss in a row, and Lamar Jackson hurt his right thumb on the first offensive play. He needs surgery and goes on injured reserve, and his coach said it could end his season. Jacksonville visits on Thursday night.
TYLER BOOKER — OG, Dallas Cowboys. Down from 44% to 29% after a 33–30 home loss to Arizona. Dallas is 3–5 and thirteenth in the NFC. San Francisco visits in Week 10: 42% with a win, 20% with a loss.
XAVIER WATTS — S, Atlanta Falcons. Shut out 16–0 at Tampa Bay, Atlanta is 3–5, and its odds fell from 35% to 22%.
Games to watch
The biggest swings for the cards over the next two weeks, as each team’s odds with a win and with a loss:
- Week 9, Packers at Patriots: Matthew Golden 63% or 42%, Treveyon Henderson 85% or 70%.
- Week 9, Giants at Eagles: Abdul Carter 70% or 48%.
- Week 9, Rams at Commanders: Kamren Kinchens 53% or 31%.
- Week 9, Buccaneers at Bears: Graham Barton 56% or 36%, Caleb Williams 89% or 80%.
- Week 9, Cardinals at Seahawks: Zach Charbonnet 51% or 32%.
- Week 10, Vikings at Packers: Matthew Golden 63% or 33%, Jordan Addison 95% or 75%.
- Week 10, Texans at Browns: Jared Verse 46% or 23%, Kamari Lassiter 31% or 11%.
- Week 10, Panthers at Saints: Ja'Tavion Sanders 43% or 20%.
- Week 10, 49ers at Cowboys: Tyler Booker 42% or 20%.
The trade deadline is Tuesday, 10 November. None of the 32 has changed teams so far, and a Prospects card pays on its player, so a trade would change the team that card is waiting on.
Risers and fallers
- RiserNick Herbig — 58% to 77% and into the AFC’s third seed, with a bye before Cincinnati.
- RiserGraham Barton — 26% to 43% on a shutout of Atlanta, half a game off the NFC South lead.
- RiserCaleb Williams — 73% to 85% after Chicago won 34–17 in Seattle.
- FallerMalaki Starks — 52% to 17%, with Lamar Jackson facing thumb surgery.
- FallerZach Charbonnet — 68% to 46% after the home loss to Chicago.
- FallerTyler Booker — 44% to 29% after Arizona won 33–30 in Dallas.
- WatchJared Verse — Out of the field at 5–3. Houston in Week 10 is worth 23 points.
- WatchMatthew Golden — Minnesota in Week 10 is the biggest swing any card has: 30 points.
This is an original blog article written by FHCWiz community writers, on various topics surrounding the FHC 27 (Football Head Coach 27) mobile game by Gamebasics BV. FHCWiz has no association with Gamebasics BV, and these articles are opinion and analysis, not official information.