Future Stars #1: the scouting report

Fourteen rookies, one rating, and fourteen completely different chances of being on the field in October. Before a snap is played, here is what every card in the set is actually betting on — ranked by the only thing that moves it.

The Future Stars Pack launched with fourteen cards and every one of them is an 82. That is the whole problem with it. The game is telling you these players are identical, and by December they will not be within eight points of each other, because the thing that separates them has nothing to do with the game at all.

A Future Star takes a monthly boost based on whether the real player appeared in his team’s games that month. Not how he played — whether he played. Four scored months, October through January, and inside each one the card is tracking the full boost right up until the first game it misses, at which point that month is capped and cannot be recovered.

That makes availability the entire scouting problem, and it is nothing like a talent ranking. It is not a ranking of starting jobs either, which is the trap worth naming up front: the boost never asks whether a player started, only whether he was on the field. Those two questions have different answers for half this set.

What decides it is how many routes onto the field a position gives you. A starting lineman or safety has one and needs no other — he is out there for every snap. A running back who is second in the rotation but holds the kick-return job has two, and either one alone is enough. A rotational interior rusher on a good defence has one that fires most weeks. But a backup quarterback and a reserve offensive tackle have no second route at all — no rotation, no return unit, nothing — so they are the only players here whose floor is genuinely nothing.

Here is the whole set on one board, ordered by how hard each player is to keep off the field.

Where something is genuinely unsettled — an open position battle, an undisclosed injury — the write-up says so rather than guessing.

Tier 1 — on the field every week

Four of these five are locked-in Week 1 starters in roles that do not rotate; the fifth gets here a different way. Barring their own injuries, they are the closest thing the set has to a guaranteed four-month boost.

• Caleb Downs — S, Dallas Cowboys (Rd 1, Pick 11)
• Jake Slaughter — C, Los Angeles Chargers (Rd 2, Pick 63)
• Vega Ioane — OG, Baltimore Ravens (Rd 1, Pick 14)
• Arvell Reese — LB, New York Giants (Rd 1, Pick 5)
• Jadarian Price — RB, Seattle Seahawks (Rd 1, Pick 32)

CALEB DOWNS. Dallas traded up with Miami — pick 12 plus two fifth-rounders — to take the Ohio State safety at 11, because they had the worst pass defence in the league last season and drafted him to fix it. They also brought in Quinnen Williams before the draft and installed Christian Parker as coordinator, so he arrives into a rebuilt unit rather than a broken one. He has been a Day 1 starter since spring; the stated plan is that he leaves the field for hydration and nothing else. Dallas deliberately limited his preseason snaps to protect him. The only realistic scenario where this card misses a month is an injury.

JAKE SLAUGHTER. Circumstance handed him the job and he has kept it. Bradley Bozeman retired, the Chargers signed Tyler Biadasz to a three-year, thirty-million deal, and Biadasz then tore an ACL in a joint practice with San Francisco and went down for the year. Jim Harbaugh named Slaughter the starting centre flatly and repeated it. His Florida resume backs it: first-team All-American in 2024, two-time first-team All-SEC, one sack and four pressures allowed across 422 pass-blocking snaps in his final season. Mike McDaniel says he is well ahead of where rookie interior linemen normally are. The scouting caveat — pass-pro first, run blocking a worry — showed up exactly on schedule in preseason grades, but a centre who snaps the ball plays every offensive down regardless.

VEGA IOANE. The top pure guard in the class and arguably the most predictable pick of the first round. He allowed zero sacks on 808 pass-blocking snaps across his last two Penn State seasons and drew comparisons to Quenton Nelson. Baltimore needed an interior fix for a quarterback sacked 36 times last year, and their line coach ran his pro day drills personally. He stepped into the first team in spring and has not left, switching from his college left guard spot to right guard because John Simpson holds the left side. Two wrinkles worth knowing: Baltimore lost Tyler Linderbaum in free agency so the centre next to him is unsettled, and the club itself is in transition with Jesse Minter taking over as head coach. Neither affects whether Ioane is on the field.

JADARIAN PRICE — RB, Seattle Seahawks (Rd 1, Pick 32). The champions used the last pick of the round on him, and he is the one player here who does not need a starting job to be a lock. He was a first-team All-American return man with three kickoff-return touchdowns on just 22 career returns — a specialist job that puts him on the field whatever the backfield does — and he also averaged 6.0 yards a carry with eleven rushing touchdowns in 2025 while sharing a backfield with Jeremiyah Love. The one flag is passing-game usage: thirteen targets across his last two college seasons.

The backfield is favourable on top of that. Kenneth Walker led it last year but was limited in the red zone and the passing game, Zach Charbonnet’s return to full health is uncertain, and the rest of the room is Emanuel Wilson and George Holani — so a lead-back share is live rather than blocked. Two independent routes onto the field is what a Future Star actually wants, and he is the only one in the set who has them.

ARVELL REESE. One of four Ohio State players inside the top eleven, and the Giants treated his fall to five as a steal. They committed immediately to playing him off-ball rather than on the edge, where they already have Burns, Thibodeaux and Carter. Their coordinator says he has absorbed the whole defensive structure, plays fast and physical, and does not repeat mistakes; he graded among the best rookies in football through preseason and is already in Defensive Rookie of the Year conversations. The only reason he is fourth here rather than first is positional — linebackers can come off in sub packages in a way that safeties and offensive linemen cannot. Context worth carrying: this is year one under John Harbaugh, and the club traded Dexter Lawrence to Cincinnati to acquire pick 10, so the defence is genuinely being rebuilt around this class.

Tier 2 — on the field, with a question attached

AVIEON TERRELL — CB, Atlanta Falcons (Rd 2, Pick 48). The younger brother of Falcons starter A.J. Terrell, out of the same Atlanta high school, and the first pick of the new Kevin Stefanski and Ian Cunningham regime — Cunningham has said Terrell was the one prospect they refused to trade away from. Twenty-one pass breakups and eight forced fumbles in two Clemson years. The question is a hamstring: it kept him out of the combine forty, flared again in a private workout, and cost him two weeks of camp and the first two preseason games. He is reported in line to start Week 1 regardless, and before the injury he had a diving interception of Tua Tagovailoa working from the nickel with the first team. The open item is alignment rather than availability — outside opposite his brother, competing with Mike Hughes, or inside at nickel while Billy Bowman rehabs an Achilles.

MAKAI LEMON — WR, Philadelphia Eagles (Rd 1, Pick 20). Philadelphia traded up with Dallas to get him, and he is part of a receiver room that was remade again when A.J. Brown was traded six weeks later. He produced 1,156 yards and eleven touchdowns at USC and is expected to start in the slot alongside DeVonta Smith and Dontayvion Wicks under first-year coordinator Sean Mannion. The concern is availability and rust in combination: he missed half of spring, nine-plus camp practices and two preseason games with a hamstring in the same leg, and his only preseason outing produced three catches for three yards on five targets, a muffed punt and a drop that became an interception. He is back at full practice and says the leg is fine. Treat him as a starter whose snap count may be eased in, and note that Smith has his own hamstring situation.

ANTHONY HILL — LB, Tennessee Titans (Rd 2, Pick 60). Possibly the biggest riser in the class. Tennessee traded up with Chicago to get him after taking Carnell Tate at four, and Gus Bradley has committed him to the MIKE role with the green dot and the defensive play calls in practice. The college production is elite: 249 tackles, 31.5 tackles for loss, seventeen sacks, eight forced fumbles and three interceptions across three Texas seasons, with back-to-back second-team All-America honours. In the second preseason week he was the highest-graded rookie in the NFL at 92.8, with seven tackles and a diagnosed interception of Jalen Milroe. He has not officially unseated Cody Barton, but his length and size fit Robert Saleh’s scheme far better than Barton’s do. Even in the version where Barton starts on paper, Hill plays heavily.

Tier 3 — rotation rather than a start

Neither of these two will appear at the top of a depth chart, and both will be on the field anyway. For a Future Star that distinction is worth nothing — an appearance is an appearance — which makes this the most underrated tier in the set.

PETER WOODS — DT, Kansas City Chiefs (Rd 1, Pick 29). Possibly the best value pick in the round. Mel Kiper’s top defensive tackle and thirteenth overall player, first-team All-ACC, taken at 29 with a pick acquired in the Trent McDuffie trade. He signed a fully guaranteed four-year deal with the highest upfront signing-bonus percentage in Chiefs first-round history, and looked like a legitimate top-ten talent through August. The plan is to deploy him on passing downs next to Chris Jones, sharpened daily in practice against Creed Humphrey and Trey Smith. A rotational interior rusher on a good defence clears the appearance bar comfortably almost every week.

KENYON SADIQ — TE, New York Jets (Rd 1, Pick 16). The draft’s top tight end, with an outrageous athletic profile — a 4.39 forty at 241 pounds, a 43.5-inch vertical, 26 bench reps, one of the youngest players in the class — off an Oregon single-season tight end record of 51 catches. The flags are a 7.9 per cent drop rate and only 31 per cent in-line alignment in college. The bigger issue is the summer he lost: sports hernia surgery in May, no OTAs, no minicamp, one camp practice, then a setback that shut him down again. Aaron Glenn says he will be ready for Week 1, but Mason Taylor capitalised on the absence and is the every-down tight end now. Sadiq opens as a package player in a role that should grow monthly.

Tier 4 — genuinely uncertain

DERRICK MOORE — DE, Detroit Lions (Rd 2, Pick 44). Detroit traded up from 50 for him, their highest-drafted edge since Aidan Hutchinson in 2022, off a genuine senior leap: a career-high ten sacks, first-team All-Big Ten, Michigan’s defensive player of the year and team MVP as a captain, with a 92.4 pass-rush grade that ranked eighth among FBS edges. The scouting caveat is run defence — Michigan often took him off in key run situations. The plan is a three-way rotation with Hutchinson and DJ Wonnum. The problem is the last fortnight: a minor groin cost him two weeks of camp and the preseason opener, he came back and produced a sack, forced fumble and tackle for loss on debut, then unexpectedly missed practice in late August with no announced diagnosis and Dan Campbell saying he would be down for a little bit. His Week 1 status is the murkiest of any healthy-adjacent player in this set.

MAX IHEANACHOR — OT, Pittsburgh Steelers (Rd 1, Pick 21). The best backstory in the class and the least settled situation. Born in Nigeria, moved to the United States at thirteen, played soccer and basketball, never played football in high school, walked on at East Los Angeles College and ended up at Arizona State allowing zero sacks on 484 pass-blocking snaps and dominating the Senior Bowl. Consensus called him tools-rich and technique-raw — a high-level backup in year one. Pittsburgh disagreed on the timeline. He was becoming the runaway winner of the right tackle job once pads came on, then a neck and shoulder injury cost him the first two preseason games, Dylan Cook struggled in his absence, and the door stayed open. Pittsburgh has since traded Broderick Jones to Dallas, leaving only Cook and Iheanachor at the position, and Mike McCarthy has given him an explicit path to win it. Cook is still listed first. He is protecting Aaron Rodgers if he wins it.

That is the whole risk with him, and it is the sharpest in the set. A reserve offensive tackle has no second route onto the field — there is no rotation at the position and no special-teams unit that wants him — so if Cook holds the job, Iheanachor is a healthy inactive rather than a rotational player, and a healthy inactive scores nothing.

Tier 5 — no route onto the field

FERNANDO MENDOZA — QB, Las Vegas Raiders (Rd 1, Pick 1). The best player in this set and the worst card in it, for now. He is the first Indiana player taken in the first round since 1994, and joins Joe Burrow and Cam Newton as the only players in the common draft era to win a national title and the Heisman before going first overall in the same offseason. Klint Kubiak has named Kirk Cousins the Week 1 starter, with Mendoza second and Aidan O’Connell third. Both the general manager and Tom Brady have advocated developing him behind a veteran, and Cousins took the majority of first-team reps all camp on the back of his Vikings history with Kubiak. Mendoza went 18-of-31 for 181 yards with a touchdown and a pick-six in preseason and said himself that his timing and anticipation need work. Cousins is 38 and on a short leash if the offence stalls, so this is the highest-upside card in the set — but upside is not a boost, and a quarterback in a baseball cap scores nothing.

JORDYN TYSON — WR, New Orleans Saints (Rd 1, Pick 8). The biggest injury story of the class. Elite but medically flagged coming in: he tore an ACL, MCL and PCL as a freshman at Colorado, broke out at Arizona State with 75 catches for 1,101 yards and ten touchdowns, then had a hamstring keep him out of the combine forty and his own pro day. On 13 August his lead foot slipped in a joint practice with Jacksonville and he was shoved from behind — his third hamstring strain in under ten months. New Orleans placed him on IR with a designation to return on 30 August, so he misses at least four games. With an international game in Week 7 and a bye after it, a Week 9 return is the realistic read. October is gone before it starts.

What we would hold

Five cards are close to appearance-proof: Downs, Slaughter, Ioane, Reese and Price. The first four hold jobs that do not rotate, on units that do not sub, and the only thing that takes a month off them is their own injury. Price gets there on two routes instead of one. If you pull any of these, it is not a solver ingredient — it is the most likely 85-plus you will own by Christmas.

Three more are quietly excellent despite the depth chart: Terrell and Lemon are expected starters carrying hamstring histories rather than role questions, and Woods is a passing-down rusher on a good defence, which fires most weeks whatever the starting lineup says. Hill sits with them — he may not be named the starter, but nobody involved expects him off the field.

The real risk is narrower than it looks, and it is not about talent. Moore has an undisclosed issue and a coach hedging about it. Iheanachor and Mendoza are the two cards with no fallback: a reserve tackle and a backup quarterback are the only positions in this set that offer no second way onto the field, so both are all-or-nothing on winning a job. Sadiq is a health question rather than a role one. Tyson is a known write-off until November, and anyone valuing his card off the 82 alone is paying for two months that are already spent.

One last note on prices, because it is the practical version of everything above. The set trades as if the cards are interchangeable, and for about three more weeks they are. The moment the October boosts land, the spread opens and it does not close again. If you are buying, buy the jobs. If you are submitting, submit the sidelines.